MTEP15 Chapter 7.2: Demand Resource, Energy Efficiency, and Distributed Generation
Applied Energy Group (AEG) developed a 20-year forecast of existing, planned and potential demand response (DR), energy efficiency (EE) and distributed generation (DG) resources and costs for MISO. This is a refresh of the MISO 2009-2010 Demand Response and Energy Efficiency study.
As compared to the 2009-2010 study, this study added the South region, provided analysis at the local resource zone (LRZ) level, adds DG, adds behavioral programs and accounts for appliance standards and programs not currently in use. This forecast meets both ongoing and emerging business needs.
The industry is increasing its focus on initiatives that include DR, EE and DG in order to meet federal or state policy requirements and other enacted or emerging enviromental regulations. MISO needed to refresh its models for DR and EE and explicitly include DG for modeling of future transmission capacity as well as understand the potential and cost of these programs both internally and for its stakeholders. This forecast allows MISO to analyze the impacts related to DR, EE and DG programs for transmission planning, real-time operations and market operations (including resource adequacy). This forecast positions MISO well for Clean Power Plan (CPP) analysis as there is a greater emphasis on EE as a compliance option in the final version of the CPP. Additionally, this forecast will be incorporated into the Independent Load Forecast models.
AEG received utility program data through a survey it conducted. Survey responses accounted for 93 percent of the load, and that data was supplemented with information from EIA Form 861.
In this report, the Existing Programs Plus case uses existing program data for 2015 from the utility survey and assumes a small annual increase in participation in current programs through 2035. Savings are broken down by LRZ and different cases are analyzed in the full report. Preliminary summary results for the Existing Programs Plus case are:
- Peak demand savings from DR programs are 5 percent of the baseline summer demand in 2015. This increases to 13 percent of the baseline summer demand by 2035.
- On the residential side, appliance incentives, direct load control and whole home audits are the programs with the greatest estimated impact in the 20-year forecast.
- On the commercial and industrial side, curtailable and interruptible, custom incentives and direct load control are the programs with the greatest estimated impact in the 20-year forecast.
- Annual energy savings from EE and DG programs are 0.4 percent of the baseline annual energy in 2015. This increases to 5 percent of the baseline annual energy in 2035.
- On the residential side, appliance incentives, lighting and whole home audits are the programs with the greatest estimated impact in the 20-year forecast.
- On the commercial and industrial side, custom incentives, perscriptive rebates and retro-commissioning are the programs with the greatest estimated impact in the 20-year forecast.
- DG is a negligible percentage of these estimates with only a 0.2 percent cumulative effect by 2035.
- Overall, DR, EE and DG programs offset 55 percent of summer peak demand growth and 25 percent of annual energy load growth by 2035.
Editor’s Note: Will link to full report if posted in time.